While Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s opening weekend was incredible, the Tom Cruise-led blockbuster couldn’t come close to matching Top Gun: Maverick’s box office haul. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One made $80 million domestically in its opening weekend. This was a staggering success for the series, which has only grown more financially successful with each of its recent outings. Concerns about Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s lengthy runtime didn’t stop the sequel from succeeding, nor did the title’s promise that the movie would only be half of Ethan Hunt’s latest adventure.
That said, Top Gun: Maverick’s box office success still beat Cruise’s more prolific franchise. During its opening weekend, Top Gun: Maverick took in $160 million domestic, a massive sum that was the biggest of Cruise’s career so far. While Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One drew audiences during an otherwise uncertain summer, the blockbuster sequel didn’t come close to matching Top Gun: Maverick’s success. However, there are numerous justifications for the disparity between the box office performance of Cruise’s two long-awaited sequels.
Top Gun: Maverick’s US Opening Had Big Advantages Over Mission: Impossible 7
Top Gun: Maverick had one major advantage over Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, and that was the movie’s Memorial Day opening. Top Gun: Maverick’s release coincided with a major holiday in the US. This was especially perfect for the arrival of a military movie. Since Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness hit theaters much earlier on May 6, the only significant studio release that coincided with Top Gun: Maverick’s release date was The Bob’s Burgers Movie. As such, Cruise’s sequel faced minimal competition during its opening weekend.
In contrast, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One had no big holiday to cash in on. Not only that, but the surprise box office success of the controversial child-trafficking drama Sound of Freedom meant the sequel faced much more competition at the box office. While Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One comfortably beat its competitors, the sequel still had to go up against an unexpected sleeper hit, an Indiana Jones sequel, and an Insidious franchise installment that outperformed expectations. As such, it is no surprise that Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One couldn’t replicate Top Gun: Maverick’s performance.
Top Gun: Maverick Had Even More Hype Than Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1
While the reviews for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Top Gun: Maverick were positive, the latter sequel had the good fortune to become the first huge post-COVID blockbuster. Since movie theaters reopened, numerous MCU outings and Daniel Craig’s No Time To Die attempted to revive the industry. However, even though Top Gun: Maverick failed to outdo the original movie in every department, its universal acclaim gave the sequel incredible hype. With Top Gun: Maverick, Cruise seemingly saved movie theaters. In contrast, Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One’s arrival was business as usual during a busy blockbuster season.
Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick Return Was A Bigger Deal Than Mission: Impossible 7
Another reason that Top Gun: Maverick was treated as a cinematic triumph was the sheer wait time between the original movie and its sequel. Maverick had been off screens for 36 years, while there has only been a five-year gap between Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Dead Reckoning Part One. It was impossible for marketing to make Ethan Hunt’s return feel as impactful as Maverick’s because Cruise’s super-spy has been a multiplex mainstay for the last three decades. Viewers got a chance to truly miss Maverick, and this led to sentimentality that made Top Gun: Maverick’s problems easier to excuse.
Mission: Impossible 7’s Box Office Challengers Are Bigger Than Top Gun: Maverick’s
Barbie and Oppenheimer are both set to dethrone Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One after its first week in theaters. The much-publicized rivalry between Barbie and Oppenheimer proves the movie industry has returned to normal in 2023, bringing about steep competition. Nothing touched Top Gun: Maverick until the blockbuster sequel was beaten by Jurassic World: Dominion after three weeks at the top. Sound of Freedom and Insidious: The Red Door threatened Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s box office dominance before the movie was even released. The impending arrivals of Barbie and Oppenheimer prove how cramped the summer schedule is. As such, the sequel’s reign may not last long.
Mission: Impossible 7 Won’t Beat Top Gun 2’s Box Office (But Will It Be A Success?)
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One is unlikely to make $1.5 billion, meaning the sequel won’t reach Top Gun: Maverick’s level of success. However, the Mission: Impossible sequel could be Cruise’s next billion-dollar movie. For the sequel to match the success of Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Dead Reckoning Part One would need to earn over $792 million. While this sounds high, the outlook is optimistic for the sequel. Fallout earned only $60 million in its opening weekend and went on to gross $791 million, meaning Dead Reckoning Part One grossing more than twice its $291 million budget seems likely.
Of course, asking whether Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One can double its big budget isn’t quite the same as asking if the movie will be a success. Fallout and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation both earned around 4.5 times their respective budgets, which would be a huge ask for Dead Reckoning Part One. For the latest sequel in the series to match this, Dead Reckoning Part One would need to earn $1.3 billion. This would almost rival Top Gun: Maverick’s success. As such, it is unlikely that Dead Reckoning Part One will be as big a hit as its predecessors due to its bigger budget.
Even Top Gun 3 Would Struggle To Repeat Maverick’s Success
Realistically, even a Top Gun: Maverick sequel would be unlikely to make over $1.4 billion, as another follow-up wouldn’t have decades of anticipation working for it. Cruise’s Top Gun 3 will likely find success, but the sequel won’t necessarily outperform Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. If Dead Reckoning Part One manages to earn back more than twice its astronomical budget, then there is a good chance the sequel will remain Cruise’s second-biggest movie for the foreseeable future. The Top Gun franchise can’t recreate the impact of Top Gun: Maverick, making Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s opening weekend more likely to succeed by comparison.